bbt

This morning, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected announce that some banks will be allowed to repay the money lent to them under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Some of the banks expected to receive approval are Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), State Street (NYSE: STT) and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB). All of these banks have expressed interest in repaying the government.

What is interesting is that there will be yet another Czar joining the White House, a "Repayment Czar," (what is the deal with the media's fascination with Russian royalty?) or as the administration will call the position, the "Special Master for Compensation."

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded BB&T (NYSE: BBT) to Market Perform from Underperform as it believes downside risk has been reduced following the company's capital raise. The firm raised its target price to $23 from $15.
  
• Janney Montgomery upgraded FEI Company (NASDAQ: FEIC) to Buy from Neutral on expectations margins will improve and various country stimulus packages will provide benefits in 2010. The firm has a $31 target on the stock.
  
• Citigroup upgraded Tyco Electronics (NYSE: TEL) to Buy from Hold as it believes automotive headwinds are priced in and the company's long-term fundamentals are intact. The firm raised its target price to $25 from $19.
• Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
  
• J.B. Hunt (NYSE: JBHT) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
  
• Roper Industries (NYSE: ROP) was upgraded at Oppenheimer to Outperform from Perform.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says he's a bit wary of both, but the pricing here is sound.

At least they knocked them down to where the shorts have to get in on the deals to cover. That's what I am thinking about BB&T (NYSE: BBT) (Cramer's Take) and Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take).

Both deals were widely telegraphed, so the shorts were able to really do a number on them. But I think because they were widely telegraphed and they had time to tell the story, both BB&T and Ford have real buyers even on the huge size of these deals --- Ford, especially -- which could make the shorts have to do some scrambling initially.

Analyst upgrades:

• Morgan Stanley upgraded Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) to Overweight from Equal Weight as they expect the company to benefit from higher natural gas prices in 2010. The firm has a $34 target on shares.
• Citigroup upgraded Energy Conversion (NASDAQ: ENER) to Hold from Sell on valuation is it finds the risk/reward balanced at current levels. The firm raised its target price to $16 from $13.
• Jefferies upgraded Lifetime Brands (NASDAQ: LCUT) to Buy from Underperform to reflect reduced liquidity concerns and an improved outlook for Global Direct Sellers. The firm raised its target price to $4 from $2.
• American Eagle (NYSE: AEO) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.
• TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) was upgraded at Barclays to Overweight from Equal Weight and to Outperform from Netural at Credit Suisse.
• STEC Inc (NASDAQ: STEC) was raised to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says we should closely monitor the situation as more banks raise capital with equity.

What really did happen Friday? I keep thinking about this because, surely, if you saw how well the Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) (Cramer's Take) deals behaved, didn't you, as a bank player, have to presume that there would be and will be more offerings?

If Wells Fargo went up 6, isn't it reasonable to presume that Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK) (Cramer's Take), KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) (Cramer's Take), Capital One (NYSE: COF) (Cramer's Take), BB&T (NYSE: BBT) (Cramer's Take) and no doubt all of the others, would do the same? Who wouldn't take advantage of this? Fifth Third (NASDAQ: FITB) (Cramer's Take)? Suntrust (NYSE: STI) (Cramer's Take)?

Why did they rally so much?

Earlier this morning, BB&T (NYSE: BBT) announced that it will cut the size of its dividend as part of its plan to repay all stock and warrants that were invested in the company through TARP. BBT said that a 15-cent dividend will be paid on common stock in the third quarter -- 68% lower than the company's current 47-cent dividend.

BBT declare: "In addition to our current earnings, while superior to our peers, are not likely to justify our 47-cent dividend in the near term." The company said that the board decided to make the dividend cut thanks to "the risk and uncertainty associated with being a TARP participant." This reduced dividend will be paid on August 3 to shareholders of record as of July 10.

The stress tests seem to show that most financials are actually quite healthy.

The market's bullishness gets harder and harder to fight. Now we learn that banks that people were telling me should be shorted aggressively on every lift are actually able to handle things quite fine, thank you very much.

I was concerned about the late moves BB&T (NYSE: BBT) (Cramer's Take) made in real estate at the top, but either the examiners aren't concerned or things have gotten better. I have always been a fan of Capital One (NYSE: COF) (Cramer's Take) and used to own it for Action Alerts PLUS until I got worried about the economy, but it looks like its credit losses are actually holding up rather well and it needs no new capital.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says we need some order -- we need some banks to survive.

Is there a writer out there who thinks more liberal mark-to-market isn't the greatest sin the regulators could ever pull off? Is there one? Today I see stories about how perfuming balance sheets is a terrible idea and reckless. I see stories about how liberal mark-to-market will confound the Treasury's public/private partnership. I see stories about how crummy bankers and corrupt pols browbeat the Financial Accounting Standards Board into giving away the store.

Apparently the markets think that U.S. risk of sovereign default is steadily creeping up. Hedge fund blogger Zero Hedge puts up the numbers here. According to the numbers from finance calculator company Markit, U.S. is a greater default risk than Japan or Germany, among others.

A default would destroy the U.S. economy and TARP recipients, in particular. The Piqqem Sentiment on major TARP holders is more or less neutral, although the bankruptcy of the U.S. Treasury might change that, no?

The FDIC took over two more banks yesterday -- Haven Trust Bank of Duluth, Ga., and Sanderson State Bank -- bringing the total number of bank failures so far this year to 25. As I posted, the FDIC likes to close banks on Friday after hours so they can reopen as branches of the acquiring bank on the following Monday morning. (Here's a post on last week's bank failure.)

BB&T (NYSE: BBT) will buy $55 million of Haven's $572 million in assets and pay $112,000 for its $515 million in deposits. The FDIC will retain Haven's remaining assets "for later disposition" -- paying $200 million. Pecos County State Bank of Fort Stockton, Tex., will buy $3.8 million of $37 million in Sanderson's assets and pay a premium of 0.55% to assume its $27.9 million in deposits -- costing the FDIC $12.5 million.

This week's bank failures were small potatoes for the FDIC which plans to double the insurance premiums it charges banks to cover these failures. With industry earnings down 94% to $1.73 billion from a year ago, the FDIC expects things to get worse -- yielding bank failures through 2013 that will cost it almost $40 billion.

And guess who will pay those higher premiums? You and me.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

It might be that the Treasury is lurching slowly in the direction of doing the right thing to fix our financial system. My cull and capitalize plan would pick the surviving few banks and close or merge the others with the winners -- it would then pump a combination of private and public capital into the winners. I think this is a good idea because the surviving banks would be healthy enough to borrow and lend to each other without undue fear of losing their money. This would go a long way to unfreezing the financial pipelines of our economy.

So far, the Treasury has invested $125 billion in nine banks which I am guessing it thinks are among the winners. Now, the Treasury is suggesting that it will dole out more capital to so-called super-regional banks -- such as KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY), Fifth Third (NYSE: FITB), BB&T (NYSE: BBT), and SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI) -- if they use the money to acquire weaker players. These super-regional banks might be a good investment opportunity now.

Unfortunately, the Treasury is approaching the problem in a haphazard manner. For example, it already gave capital to banks that are losing enormous sums -- Citigroup (NYSE: C) which got $25 billion comes to mind. And of these four super-regionals -- two (KeyCorp and Fifth Third) are losing big bucks and two -- BB&T which posted third quarter profit of $358 million and SunTrust which earned $540 million in the second quarter -- are earning money. Why would Treasury invest in money-losing banks?

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup raised Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN) to Hold from Sell. The firm upgraded shares following the company's Q2 upside and believes guidance for the second half of 2008 is appropriately conservative.
  
• Jefferies upgraded China Sunergy (NASDAQ: CSUN) based on valuation,and improved liquidity and silicon supply outlook.
  
• Stephens upgraded infoUSA (NASDAQ: IUSA) shares to Overweight from Equal Weight to reflect the stock's valuation, new management, improvements in expense controls and the potential to become a takeover target.
  
• Citigroup raised BB&T (NYSE: BBT) to Buy from Hold.
• Stifel upgraded Leggett & Platt (NYSE: LEG) to Buy from Hold.

Analyst downgrades:

• Citigroup downgraded Cablevision (NYSE: CVC) to Sell from Buy as they do not expect the company's structural moves to unlock value.
  
• Wachovia dropped Knight Transportation (NYSE: KNX) to Market Perform from Outperform based on valuation.
  

Financials have staged an impressive rally from extremely oversold levels," says Kelley Wright, editor of the top-rated IQ Trends, which focuses on high quality, blue chip, dividend-paying stocks. Here's his top long-term buys among banks.

"It is increasingly evident that the banking sector is dividing into two distinct camps; the have's and the have not's. The 'have's' are:

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) among the big cap area;
SunTrust (NYSE: STI) and BB&T Corp. (NYSE: BBT) in the larger regional banking sector;
Bank of Hawaii (NYSE: BOH) and Southwest Bancorp (NASDAQ: OKSB) in the smaller cap area.

"The impressive rally to date notwithstanding, it still remains to be seen whether another retracement will develop should crude oil, gold and other commodities reverse course.

"A strong rally in these sectors could send the market down again. While Mr. Market can do whatever he pleases, it is highly unusual for stocks to bottom in the summer.

"It would not be imprudent to see what September and October have to offer before anyone begins to talk seriously about the bottom. For investors with an appetite for the financials, however, we would suggest dusting off that old tried and true tactic of dollar cost averaging as a prudent means to establish positions."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says our problems are so widespread, he sees lots more IndyMacs before we're out.

You don't need me to tell you it's awful out there. You don't need me to tell you that there's no quick fix for any of these things. But what might help you understand why it feels so bad this time is that I have never, in my career, seen so many companies go off track at the same time. This is one unbelievable moment, and it is made more horrible by the day as companies' stocks just get pummeled, causing people to then question the very viability of the companies involved.

First, obviously, are Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). We don't know what will happen, but we do know that their futures are much darker than their pasts. Their best hope: a Democrat becomes president and shows the usual love to both. But as investments, they are pretty much perma-losers going forward. The losses are that heavy. Yes, it is true that two years from now they will be better, but will the government let them limp through to that? View them as calls on a Democratic win.

We all know that Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take), Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and National City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) are in trouble. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) says it isn't in trouble, but obviously the market doesn't believe management because the stock failed to rally when it said its dividend was safe. Any short-selling hedge fund could hire 30 actors and have them line up at a Washington Mutual or two and get a bank run going. Then we would have to hear about a "hasty" Treasury department plan to bail out WM. Hasty? How can these guys not see it coming?

After the implosion of IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) and news of the deterioration of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) last week, there's bound to be a certain level of trepidation as the earnings crunch begins this coming week and many big financial companies report. Here's a look at what Wall Street was expecting (see The week in preview: Expectations as the earnings crunch begins for expectations of other reporting companies.)

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting the following of companies to report lower earnings when compared to the same period of the previous year.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM): 44 cents EPS (-63.3%) on sales of $16.4 billion (-13.2%)
• Comerica Inc. (NYSE: CMA): 51 cents EPS (-59.2%) on sales of $680.2 million (-7.3%)
• Zions Bancorp. (NYSE: ZION): 75 cents EPS (-47.6%) on sales of $627.3. million (+2.7%)
• Huntington Bancshares Inc. (NYSE: HBAN): 23 cents EPS (-32.4%) on sales of $617.1 million (+50.7%)
• Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF): $1.31 EPS (-30.7%) on sales of $4.4 billion (+7.8%)
• Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC): 50 cents EPS (-25.4%) on sales of $10.7 billion (+7.7%)
• M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB): $1.50 EPS (-23.1%) on sales of $756.6 million (+1.6%)
• BB&T Corp. (NYSE: BBT): 69 cents EPS (-16.9%) on sales of $1.8 billion (+5.9%)
• U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB): 60 cents EPS (-7.7%) on sales of $3.8 billion (+8.3%)
• PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE: PNC): $1.16 EPS (-7.2%) on sales of $1.9 billion (+8.5%)